Wind turbines can remain productive for up to 25 years, making wind farms a good long-term choice for energy investors, according to new research. There
has been some debate about whether wind turbines have a more limited
shelf-life than other energy technologies. A previous study used a
statistical model to estimate that electricity output from wind turbines
declines by a third after only ten years of operation. Some opponents
of wind power have argued that aging turbine technology could need
replacing en masse after as little as ten years, which would make it an
unattractive option in economic terms.
In a new study, researchers
from Imperial College Business School carried out a comprehensive
nationwide analysis of the UK fleet of wind turbines, using local wind
speed data from NASA. They showed that the turbines will last their full
life of about 25 years before they need to be upgraded. The team
found that the UK’s earliest turbines, built in the 1990s, are still
producing three-quarters of their original output after 19 years of
operation, nearly twice the amount previously claimed, and will operate
effectively up to 25 years. This is comparable to the performance of gas
turbines used in power stations.
The study also found that more
recent turbines are performing even better than the earliest models,
suggesting they could have a longer lifespan. The team says this makes a
strong business case for further investment in the wind farm industry. Dr
Iain Staffell, co-author of the paper and a research fellow at Imperial
College Business School, said: “Wind farms are an important source of
renewable energy. In contrast, our dwindling supply of fossil fuels
leaves the UK vulnerable to price fluctuations and with a costly import
bill. However, in the past it has been difficult for investors to work
out whether wind farms are an attractive investment. Our study provides
some certainty, helping investors to see that wind farms are an
effective long-term investment and a viable way to help the UK tackle
future energy challenges.”
Professor Richard Green, co-author and
Head of the Department of Management at Imperial College Business
School, added: “There have been concerns about the costs of maintaining
aging wind farms and whether they are worth investing in. This study
gives a ‘thumbs up’ to the technology and shows that renewable energy is
an asset for the long term.” The researchers reached their
conclusion using data from NASA, collected over a twenty year period, to
measure the wind speed at the exact site of each onshore wind farm in
the UK. They compared this with actual recorded output data from each
farm and developed a formula that enabled them to calculate how wear and
tear of the machinery affects the performance of the turbines. This is
in contrast to the previous study, which only used the average estimates
of nationwide wind speeds to determine the effects of wear and tear on
wind farm infrastructure.
In the future, the team aim to study
newer wind farms over a longer period to determine if advancements in
turbine technology means that they are degrading less. This could help
the researchers to determine more accurately how long newer wind farms
will last so that they can calculate their potential long-term economic
benefits.
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